MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1ff1a1b9908041404e5789494cec7a4b9133e667c7002665fed2510472b73ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 5,618$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 37c | 4,081$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Over | 57c | 2,912$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.74 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 38c | 1,286$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.17 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 38c | 970.53$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.73 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 411.11$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 411.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 38c | 198.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 38c | 155.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 39c | 154.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 38c | 135.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 43c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 38c | 40.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Under | 38c | 39.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…0b53backed Under | 38c | 38.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 38c | 31.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 60c | 25.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.