MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0dc185389bcfbc73a4db51e67863cc0de1584a6f4e4fe5db8cca0341f3a5d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 5,654$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.22 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 5,064$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 3,360$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 2,048$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,763$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Over | 48c | 1,688$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 1,416$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.19 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…4c15backed Over | 48c | 737.84$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 720$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 52c | 588.12$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 552.75$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.43 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 48c | 479.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.59 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 455$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 421.73$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 54c | 361.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 42c | 328.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 46c | 326.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 309.93$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 46c | 245.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 236.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 208.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 201.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 33c | 166.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 44c | 148$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 141.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 126.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 52c | 88.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 75.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 61.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 52.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Over | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 46.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 49c | 45.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 44c | 45.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Under | 52c | 42.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 47c | 40.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b36bbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…b876backed Over | 34c | 38.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Under | 62c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed Over | 41c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 57c | 27.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 47c | 26.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…0e7fbacked Over | 48c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.