TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks69c17,143$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,799.9661351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed San Diego Padres52c10,360$5,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.4448451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres32c3,498$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.7611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks69c2,877$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.820648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres31c2,637$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.26,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed San Diego Padres33c2,396$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.221,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres39c2,304$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.441,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,050$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.491,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres39c1,942$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.222,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…24e8backed Arizona Diamondbacks52c1,934$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres39c1,867$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.344,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,683$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.626,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c1,530$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.4110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres35c1,506$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.0412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked San Diego Padres33c550$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.582636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c461$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.218,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed San Diego Padres32c453.43$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4229549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c416.74$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.213,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7cb…fbe2backed Arizona Diamondbacks6c318$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…558bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed San Diego Padres40c299$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.448952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c263.9$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.341,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks73c257.7$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.125,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8b…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.411662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres39c208.26$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.042,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3824backed San Diego Padres39c168.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.710746.7%50 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres33c151$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.171,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres39c139.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c131.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1952947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c129.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2168942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks72c125.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.254,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked San Diego Padres31c120$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.819152.9%101 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c112.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7067449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed San Diego Padres27c111.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.32429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked San Diego Padres37c108.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.113946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres32c95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.61,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…3728backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c79.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres36c78.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.351,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5a…9d75backed San Diego Padres26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9210515.2%16 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c65.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7219654.1%106 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.142,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6552852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres40c62.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4485949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c54.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks45c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2924843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd759…6d1abacked San Diego Padres48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.084949%24 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c50.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3217253.5%92 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed San Diego Padres39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.55435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c48.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.339553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed San Diego Padres39c48.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7224444.7%109 W · 135 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x543b…e23dbacked San Diego Padres40c47.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked San Diego Padres38c45.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8915349%75 W · 78 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed San Diego Padres38c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9439250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres30c35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed San Diego Padres31c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1518347%86 W · 97 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c34.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.882,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked San Diego Padres40c34.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4526753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed San Diego Padres33c34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8834639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres39c32.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2095252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed San Diego Padres39c30.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7734843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c28.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.215,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c26.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.187370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed San Diego Padres75c26.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5935149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks49c25.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c22.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres51c20.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.035,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c18.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113054.6%71 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ec…a2f9backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c17.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129256.5%165 W · 127 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c16.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.231,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0297…e67fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks70c15.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115066%33 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.