MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee7c0969b5b56b4670f62a54b5a00431cc095b4c4c01949377fdca1837baa14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 69c | 12,000$8,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,279.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 31c | 4,668$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,207.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…7e68backed Under | 45c | 3,580$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 3,410$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Over | 56c | 3,375$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,845$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 55c | 2,596$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.41 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,821$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 39c | 1,538$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 60c | 1,337$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.15 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 1,131$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.54 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 57c | 580.54$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 450.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 32c | 427.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 53c | 303.42$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.61 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 58c | 293.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 249.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Under | 43c | 232.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 46c | 217.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 58c | 188.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 44c | 178$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 60c | 110.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 43c | 106.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 36c | 90.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 86.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…72cebacked Under | 58c | 84.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 46c | 82.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 56c | 73.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 66.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 56.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Over | 57c | 51.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e71…dd82backed Under | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…016abacked Under | 60c | 45.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 34.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 37c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 57c | 29.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…327ebacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.