South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc256ec5a1b7f594f925af98d9c2bfb69d9e7b1eb0117ff0eb204335b5afbbabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 6,383$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.44 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a351backed Yes | 29c | 2,677$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.47 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 24c | 2,276$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.01 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,403$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 25c | 1,372$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.97 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 901.52$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.37 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 711.02$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 646.79$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 621.98$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 555.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 28c | 507.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 79c | 326.1$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…6087backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 281.86$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…6f67backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 24c | 277.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 25c | 216$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 156.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 73c | 143.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…b723backed Yes | 27c | 134.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…b317backed No | 75c | 94.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 25c | 87.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…26b5backed Yes | 21c | 57.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 72c | 55.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…d4f7backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 72c | 46.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 28c | 38.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed No | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-07-26?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-07-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.