TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fnaticof Fnatic, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$522,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$631,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x410d…d831backed Fnatic22c20,801$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,302.8622624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed G2 Esports78c20,028$15,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,711.262653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+53.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Fnatic62c19,738$12,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,492.649456.4%53 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Fnatic21c19,565$4,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,521.8148149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked G2 Esports2c18,410$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports34c14,246$4,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,837.782,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed G2 Esports76c12,782$9,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,762.4831153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ff…8d60backed G2 Esports4c12,778$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.481735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+78.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fnatic19c12,175$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,908.141,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked G2 Esports80c12,141$9,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,696.3512664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed G2 Esports31c12,134$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.681,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked G2 Esports32c12,009$3,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.841,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed G2 Esports79c10,931$8,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,634.511,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Fnatic28c9,831$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,060.461,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked G2 Esports80c9,151$7,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,317.9490348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed Fnatic45c8,646$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.8413251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports80c7,620$6,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.8764155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked G2 Esports33c5,698$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.7885046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fnatic63c5,271$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.091,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed G2 Esports78c5,075$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.321,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G2 Esports66c5,016$3,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.731,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692a…9d71backed Fnatic61c5,005$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.031250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Fnatic39c4,933$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.6489943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Fnatic47c4,894$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.81,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed G2 Esports60c4,502$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.710550.5%53 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Fnatic24c4,017$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.5960855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed G2 Esports52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08013344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed Fnatic47c3,868$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.8724065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports78c3,866$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.552,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed G2 Esports77c3,814$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.034240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Fnatic41c3,400$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.7442840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed G2 Esports33c3,272$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.7744042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7097…e1debacked G2 Esports74c3,070$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.269450%47 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed Fnatic19c3,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,43024029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed G2 Esports78c3,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Fnatic20c3,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.9950848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports60c2,609$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.263,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Fnatic41c2,578$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.3345248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed G2 Esports80c2,493$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.031,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G2 Esports33c2,486$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.995041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Fnatic25c2,251$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.5744047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports33c2,250$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.651,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Fnatic21c2,118$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.2866843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Fnatic25c2,117$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.727847.4%37 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Fnatic40c2,043$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.863546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a9…7076backed Fnatic42c2,009$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.5416844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G2 Esports79c1,987$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.0596250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed G2 Esports79c1,981$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.661,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked G2 Esports78c1,974$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.411,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed G2 Esports7c1,888$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1985746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed Fnatic52c1,879$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed G2 Esports80c1,875$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de8…6cf3backed Fnatic25c1,604$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.0615334.6%53 W · 100 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Fnatic20c1,544$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.3356432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Fnatic42c1,490$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.19035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed G2 Esports38c1,467$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.6969539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Fnatic22c1,444$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.52,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2842…1dedbacked G2 Esports33c1,348$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed G2 Esports17c1,307$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2186251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fnatic67c1,299$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.891,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked G2 Esports1c1,210$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.196297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed G2 Esports78c1,200$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9301,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G2 Esports45c1,168$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.462,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Fnatic22c1,132$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.8712927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Fnatic21c1,124$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.9826942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports16c1,109$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Fnatic19c1,105$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.182,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Fnatic24c1,093$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.079131.9%29 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked G2 Esports45c1,091$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0559952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4595…df87backed G2 Esports56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Fnatic59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41045739.6%181 W · 276 L-37.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Fnatic58c994.79$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0350051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked G2 Esports48c992.24$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2695847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked G2 Esports62c946.65$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.326245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed G2 Esports61c930$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.577545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f5…1700backed Fnatic74c929.17$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.777451.4%38 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…abb2backed G2 Esports5c899.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439526.3%25 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Fnatic20c873.59$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.0639447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed Fnatic41c867.92$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.227842.3%33 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc573…61d1backed Fnatic24c862.33$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.045145.1%23 W · 28 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Fnatic21c858.51$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.516034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3707…699abacked G2 Esports56c846.07$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked G2 Esports78c845.57$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.5476047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e8…ef2bbacked G2 Esports40c837.3$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.1764556.6%365 W · 280 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1fd…4ab3backed G2 Esports71c833.91$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.866058.3%35 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed G2 Esports70c800$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5581,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed G2 Esports12c780.72$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6976639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed G2 Esports2c749.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed G2 Esports53c731.3$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.761,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed G2 Esports30c715.43$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1376142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b17…fdbfbacked G2 Esports4c706.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2718159.7%108 W · 73 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked G2 Esports80c669.26$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.4135457.9%205 W · 149 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Fnatic21c666.19$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.2995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5198…7a53backed G2 Esports50c664.76$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.772944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Fnatic21c660.25$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.1517143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe751…9af6backed G2 Esports79c624.94$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.725945.2%117 W · 142 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed G2 Esports15c614.28$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1439246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed G2 Esports63c590.88$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.572642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8be…444ebacked G2 Esports23c580.09$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.623839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Fnatic43c579.6$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.445041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.