MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29cefd89be6c5c631d02272d22693cb0f50f7acee8c8d316ff7b169a1e2bea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 41c | 6,273$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.85 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 59c | 5,091$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.37 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 59c | 999.21$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.35 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Under | 58c | 840.34$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 810.75$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.55 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 36c | 548.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 525.41$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 63c | 246.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 161.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 135.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 59c | 121.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 109.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 56c | 69.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Under | 59c | 65.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cf…2381backed Under | 50c | 64.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 59c | 59.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…263cbacked Over | 77c | 53.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 41c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 58c | 31.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 44c | 31.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 51c | 27.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 53c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 62c | 20.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.