MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe884aaf1e98f2d46d0a5cde5e4d0f530a29890cdd6374502d0b5345588cfb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 3,915$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.5 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 2,340$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 2,075$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.35 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,997$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.5 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 1,913$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.36 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 1,789$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.42 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 1,746$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.73 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 1,124$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 1,012$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 969.4$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.01 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 719.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.13 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 653.55$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.31 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 630.59$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.91 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 7c | 613.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 550.03$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.01 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 500.58$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 494.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 384.09$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.05 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 336.09$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 320$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 296.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 233.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 212.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 194.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 157.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 152.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 143.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 140.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 16c | 79.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 22c | 75.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…263cbacked Colorado Rockies | 67c | 74.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 67.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 65.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…4db6backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 64.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 60.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…3222backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 29.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.