Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2aa23f9e209c72aeabeeba45ec949db770cde9d7e84db5b8603730279dcc100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 1,369$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed No | 44c | 1,015$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.76 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 45c | 651.66$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 43c | 601.67$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.1 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 56c | 506.32$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.82 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 57c | 399.94$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 56c | 369.56$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 8c | 266.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed No | 44c | 237.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 57c | 171.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Yes | 57c | 169.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 55c | 139.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked No | 45c | 108.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 43c | 103.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…231fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Yes | 57c | 72.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 46c | 46.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…ac76backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 55c | 36.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 52c | 35.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed No | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.