TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c30,855$10,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,920.183,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over72c13,906$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,906.051163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Over60c9,999$5,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.662850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under28c6,678$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.4378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over53c6,647$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.091181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over71c3,743$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.451675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5e7…b1a4backed Over60c3,683$2,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8407057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.994835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under29c1,518$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.139048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under34c1,457$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.371,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Over71c1,438$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.962365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over53c1,267$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.92966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over71c1,241$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.8910361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd16…07bbbacked Over72c1,100$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3071776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Under31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under29c923.17$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.871,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf7…056cbacked Over73c767.53$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over61c655$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.456768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under27c628.8$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.871,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under33c547.69$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.882,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under28c450$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c442.21$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.841,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under29c427.97$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.117335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.542487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over58c417.81$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.818056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11233340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over61c378$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6121041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over57c369.98$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.099062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over67c358.21$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2112951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8717055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x170e…aa0dbacked Over70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.712860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under28c263.69$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8312858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Over59c255.24$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over71c200.51$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.154671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over69c199.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x678e…63febacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under9c186.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8651136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over55c179.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.994254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa600…0fc5backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6081…f0f2backed Over71c171.54$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under28c170$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.613859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under28c170$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.612358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over61c163.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9310648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under29c148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.855149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Over71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.856159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over71c138.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.062462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f3e…0615backed Over75c134.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Over71c126$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.66259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee43…ae9dbacked Over71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under29c87.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ceb…be53backed Over75c83.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.79580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over71c74.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6512069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Over70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.433070%21 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.432774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Under30c71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.424269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under31c65.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.458253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3413066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over55c55.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8720753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b63…7db5backed Over70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fc…dc1cbacked Over61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.18580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under35c45.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6517456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeaa…e2d0backed Over71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over71c43.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.662785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea51…83a0backed Over59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Under26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Over71c39.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.347100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x749b…48d8backed Over70c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Over70c37.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over61c36.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.163467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc92…6564backed Over71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212576%19 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over73c34.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.194445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Under45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over70c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over65c30.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.616035%21 W · 39 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under42c26.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9420153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over75c23.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.857867.9%53 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e89…fb59backed Over53c21.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+65.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.