TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,102 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c12,350$6,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,085.613,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Over55c2,500$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.022365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Over29c1,307$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.836726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c1,216$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.141,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over29c1,191$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.278336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over66c999.43$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.571675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c5…a9edbacked Over55c999$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under40c867.38$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d24…9661backed Over66c759.01$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over45c660.48$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over54c632.19$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.961711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-69.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Over30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204020%8 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11617055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Over80c376.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under71c351.21$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.857335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2472…8d9bbacked Over30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Over30c346.67$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Under63c341.13$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.761758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x678e…63febacked Over60c316.45$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.11369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over65c309.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Over38c309.43$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.584337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under44c308.56$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Over6c275.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.432650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over80c269.16$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.338955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Over30c247.43$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over30c226.47$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Over78c221.76$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.65860.3%35 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Under71c203$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.022369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+47.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43a4…7170backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under46c195.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.262948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over44c185.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9510552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd573…f99ebacked Over29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…5f1dbacked Over30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Over49c162.5$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792763%17 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed Over65c160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f03…dc32backed Over29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-85.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under70c138.13$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4414157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under44c136.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.941,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over35c131.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under34c111.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6821540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over78c110.32$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8612069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86f0…3180backed Over80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…cfa1backed Over75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…9812backed Over72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0877…0314backed Over73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326d…baa1backed Over75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68d…8874backed Over80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb485…d7cfbacked Over74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1817…5f80backed Over36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0727…8b6abacked Over75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa14…e53bbacked Over75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb7…fb2bbacked Over75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22ba…c1e1backed Over71c99.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under48c99.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5515742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over34c97.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over53c96.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.916339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over43c90.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1811955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over72c88.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7510648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over41c85.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under71c84.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5137344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb0…466fbacked Under27c82.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.571145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over29c77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.337452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5325…c0b5backed Under36c74.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Over34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under41c71.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3148658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under52c71.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6317456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over36c70.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd18b…1e04backed Over30c67.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x936b…c603backed Over59c59.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+76.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43ed…79e1backed Under68c59.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.123345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Over34c55.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.914656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over57c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.045354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over40c50.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over52c47.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5134655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Under32c46.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8abe…61debacked Over67c44.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0411065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb71…434dbacked Over56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205261.5%32 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over62c32.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb873…c4ecbacked Under49c31.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Over66c22.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over60c20.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1522562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd7…88d8backed Over77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc69a…e9f7backed Over55c19.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over61c19.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.686035%21 W · 39 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbcd1…5d5fbacked Under74c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.688100%8 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2805…d0f5backed Under71c17.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under65c16.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8819254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.