TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43a4…7170backed Under50c105,929$52,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,672.171553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c38,465$19,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,232.741,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under52c32,413$16,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,8554854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over48c15,058$7,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,829.951464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c14,322$7,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,266.413,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Over48c10,300$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,356683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over51c8,453$4,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,172.852,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Under53c7,553$4,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,025560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c6,999$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.5733244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over50c3,500$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Over47c3,412$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.332850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over51c3,401$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.519951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5303357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5007057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5006459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Over39c2,586$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.28944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under51c2,339$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.0416850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Under52c2,308$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c2,117$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.8278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0402454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c1,729$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.2117251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over35c1,717$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.0711630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under60c1,524$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.931,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over46c1,386$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.571855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c1,061$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.0335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Over49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over49c1,016$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.486448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over48c879$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5410361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over50c804.2$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.2619254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4008764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under53c792.45$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under52c767.99$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.357335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abc…9ff7backed Under49c716.04$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Over30c700$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Over48c700$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3643644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3819943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over50c603$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under52c578$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.562850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over50c568.75$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.946558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.835246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2455052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under51c489.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5410553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f3…2e5abacked Under62c453.42$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over50c450$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Over48c412.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.642466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20815742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20024258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2472…8d9bbacked Over49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over51c390$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.176234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over37c380$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.413142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over48c371$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.922470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over50c364.27$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1415454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over50c360$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18014355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over50c349.34$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8217456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Over49c326.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.534020%8 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1508461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15015453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Under53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.253773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14012757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Under65c261.03$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12511860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over50c240.2$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over46c217.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.58955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9a…c308backed Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over62c209.26$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2634655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over49c204.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf830…c2dbbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.086659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1309123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985354.7%29 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Over48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+241.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over50c190$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9012356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8511458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8511259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8512458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8512358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8010360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over29c151.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7227142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2e…44c3backed Over47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over52c149.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.621,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e36…6ce1backed Under52c136.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.435547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Over52c125.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.52650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.