Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b88aade7ca8b6d4db907ee607586ad62b57e047f4848c6cda1ec3e7b720de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 211.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 26c | 199.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 195.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 79c | 193.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 182.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 18c | 169.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 164.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 143.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 142.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 79c | 109.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 99.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 95.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 19c | 95.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 29c | 89.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 24c | 43.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 72c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 30.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5b…2979backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.