Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe98592bf9b303e667023c387536a7633c72879aa22a68ea20c0edc860a32802a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 256.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 231.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 215.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 36c | 195.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 193.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 188$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 22c | 178.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 170.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 139.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 52c | 135.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 123.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 113.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 109.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 13c | 102.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 97.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 41c | 88.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 53c | 86.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 85.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 80.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 48c | 73.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…e2e4backed Yes | 63c | 69.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 66.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 64.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 59.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 59.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 53.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 51.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 60c | 49.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 47.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 49c | 46.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 41.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 39.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 37.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…95d5backed Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 33.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 39c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 34c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 30.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 68c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 59c | 28.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 61c | 27.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 41c | 24.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 57c | 24.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.