TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c771.76$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed No79c541.86$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.728943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c308.7$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c266.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.826,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes26c236.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.521,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed No48c190.71$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.912236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c188$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.115,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No25c178.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c171.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes34c167$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.831,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes33c151.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.61,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c150.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.474,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes37c149.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.875532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No67c147.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c139.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.624,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes25c116.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.122254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c114.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c111.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes39c106.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes39c104.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes36c101.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c101.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1781848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes30c99.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed No72c98.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0925261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c98.65$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes79c98.4$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No68c92.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6328441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c91.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.019,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c90.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.473,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes22c87.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.382,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No68c79.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0657545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes34c79.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5754335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes51c79.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7416836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c75.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.732,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c74.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.853,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c70.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No41c70.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0127247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c65.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.254,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5322744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1410746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c56.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.822,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes30c56.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.262850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.514524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No64c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No65c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.133350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c51.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c47.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.541,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No74c46.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes36c46.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.517925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes46c46.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c44.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.442,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes25c42.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.982030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c41.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes35c39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3580735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No65c38.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c37.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xff89…dbffbacked Yes39c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.574537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes78c36.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.027953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No45c36.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c36.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.112,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes74c36.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c35.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.332,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes35c34.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.453,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes31c32.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.261,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No68c30.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No65c27.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf287…40e1backed No75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No74c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.242755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c25.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed No77c25.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9911344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d42…a046backed No48c24.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.863145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No62c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.264178%32 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.741,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No75c21.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9325560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No70c21.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.957170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No54c19.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.392,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No73c19.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No63c17.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No68c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.828660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No70c15.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.571,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.