Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f7dd42a467070a1a2f57e43600cde1d99a957f8ab70bc395350889aba3c10f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $318,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $316,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Moutet | 3c | 99,153$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.67 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Moutet | 1c | 24,024$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.77 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Moutet | 2c | 22,545$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.75 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Moutet | 3c | 9,041$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Moutet | 0c | 8,987$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Moutet | 2c | 6,482$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Moutet | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Moutet | 1c | 4,675$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bb…a1a7backed Moutet | 3c | 4,553$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Moutet | 3c | 3,871$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Moutet | 2c | 3,841$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…1130backed Moutet | 3c | 3,027$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Moutet | 3c | 2,582$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 307 | 39.1%120 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Moutet | 3c | 2,319$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moutet | 2c | 2,313$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Moutet | 3c | 2,241$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…986abacked Moutet | 1c | 2,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Moutet | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Moutet | 3c | 1,823$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Moutet | 1c | 1,680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Moutet | 1c | 1,615$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Moutet | 3c | 1,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Moutet | 3c | 1,290$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Moutet | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Moutet | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Moutet | 2c | 1,120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Moutet | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Moutet | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Moutet | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03da…7907backed Moutet | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Moutet | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Moutet | 1c | 980.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Moutet | 3c | 938.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Moutet | 2c | 875$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…a2f0backed Moutet | 3c | 812.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Moutet | 2c | 796.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Moutet | 3c | 759.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Moutet | 1c | 730.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Moutet | 2c | 699.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…1b50backed Moutet | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Moutet | 2c | 603$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Moutet | 3c | 569.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Moutet | 3c | 456.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…9d9bbacked Moutet | 3c | 351.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Moutet | 3c | 333.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…6faabacked Moutet | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutetthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Moutet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Moutet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Moutet: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MoutetAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.