Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30e900351fba3d5299fd830b518f323fe4df72cb637ab63d3cd3139a7dc0d8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 63c | 1,000$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…6e0cbacked No | 5c | 794$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 37c | 778.81$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 338.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 37c | 278.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 18c | 205.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 77c | 191.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 174.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 38c | 170$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 35c | 167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 65c | 154.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 68c | 147.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 71c | 146.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 64c | 139.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 134.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed Yes | 64c | 129.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 114.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 66c | 98.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 65c | 88.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 61c | 87.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 63c | 78.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 16c | 72.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 27c | 67.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 64.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 54c | 63.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 34c | 58.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 75c | 57.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 19c | 53.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 44.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 65c | 42.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 66c | 33.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 66c | 33.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 70c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 65c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…f1f8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.