Mls · resolved market
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31b787f3235ad63cdf2ed88a88b6a19af2bac07909548fe1b0b6ab183264e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 25c | 591.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 24c | 322.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…e354backed Over | 76c | 255$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 76c | 176.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Over | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 72c | 99.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 29c | 76.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 26c | 75.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 75c | 70.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 74c | 70.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 19c | 68.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 74c | 67.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 76c | 64.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 73c | 43.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 76c | 32.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 75c | 30.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 74c | 30.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…ff1cbacked Over | 73c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 74c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…e018backed Over | 75c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.