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Mls · resolved market

Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inter Miami CFof Inter Miami CF, Philadelphia Union
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee0d…57abbacked Philadelphia Union51c60,227$30,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,642.161060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Inter Miami CF49c14,352$7,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,262.4553040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ce…944bbacked Inter Miami CF50c14,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Inter Miami CF50c10,401$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,241.271752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Inter Miami CF49c10,132$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,132.182254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Union50c8,082$4,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.6913553.3%72 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Inter Miami CF50c7,473$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,736.8133346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Inter Miami CF39c6,580$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,012.4198945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Inter Miami CF48c6,492$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.413531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Philadelphia Union49c5,065$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.838563.5%54 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Union48c4,879$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.2799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Inter Miami CF49c4,860$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Inter Miami CF50c4,195$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.711275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Philadelphia Union50c3,022$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.0818651.6%96 W · 90 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Union69c2,432$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.651,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Union50c2,186$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.0316453%87 W · 77 L+20.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Inter Miami CF51c2,080$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Inter Miami CF50c1,563$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.8453046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Philadelphia Union51c1,553$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Inter Miami CF49c1,518$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.1568150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Inter Miami CF50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7008547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Inter Miami CF20c1,375$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.021915.8%3 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Union50c1,370$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7846156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Philadelphia Union50c1,363$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5239567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Inter Miami CF49c1,260$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.281,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Inter Miami CF50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60012263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Philadelphia Union50c1,160$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Philadelphia Union51c1,089$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Inter Miami CF49c1,067$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.983,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…68e5backed Inter Miami CF24c992.42$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.24520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Union50c985.94$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.978041.3%33 W · 47 L-11.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Philadelphia Union50c985.5$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Union50c909.8$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.93767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Inter Miami CF49c897.96$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Philadelphia Union51c878$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Philadelphia Union48c788.29$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.384959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x520e…0453backed Inter Miami CF51c785$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Union65c712.44$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.0271443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Inter Miami CF50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35012661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Inter Miami CF61c628.88$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.244639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Philadelphia Union50c591.75$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9912254.1%66 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Union50c571.58$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.792634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Philadelphia Union50c571.58$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.79425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Philadelphia Union70c567.4$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Union50c534.14$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.074862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bff…c8a8backed Inter Miami CF49c506.12$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.124040%16 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Inter Miami CF33c505$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Philadelphia Union52c480$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.655750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Philadelphia Union51c413.98$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Philadelphia Union50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Inter Miami CF50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20016960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Philadelphia Union52c384.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9973438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Union50c383.59$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Inter Miami CF49c360.81$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.23345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Philadelphia Union52c356.32$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5591553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Inter Miami CF51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1474126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Inter Miami CF49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15315060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Inter Miami CF50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15013158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc338…974ebacked Inter Miami CF30c299.88$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Inter Miami CF50c293$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Inter Miami CF49c292.51$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8797146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Inter Miami CF49c270$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Union49c268$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.322343.5%10 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Inter Miami CF50c260$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13012162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Philadelphia Union50c258.91$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.09944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Inter Miami CF22c248.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Inter Miami CF49c217.24$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7917258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Union50c201.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7115458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Inter Miami CF52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61a1…1307backed Inter Miami CF52c189.12$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+113%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Philadelphia Union68c185.92$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3578344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Inter Miami CF49c172.02$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2114257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Inter Miami CF49c160$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.614459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Philadelphia Union51c159.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.515133.3%17 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Philadelphia Union41c159.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668144.4%36 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Inter Miami CF50c156$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7814459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Union50c153.61$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.81812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.1wins-0.51per pick63cpaid-82.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Philadelphia Union52c153.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Philadelphia Union67c150.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Inter Miami CF43c147.67$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3636051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Philadelphia Union41c144.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Inter Miami CF49c140$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.416955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Union18c128.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Union56c126.06$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.861,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Inter Miami CF49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed Philadelphia Union49c113.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-67.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Inter Miami CF50c112$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5120849.5%103 W · 105 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Union50c108.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.22152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Philadelphia Union50c107.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.743743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2c…d911backed Philadelphia Union50c106$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Inter Miami CF48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.178853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Union50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Inter Miami CF50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5015259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Inter Miami CF49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5113461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Inter Miami CF50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b24…4247backed Inter Miami CF50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Inter Miami CF49c99.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.989858.2%57 W · 41 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Philadelphia Union51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Philadelphia Union50c97.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Union50c97.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.