Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc323b32fc93f3bedfd616d79adbeba1714e388123a6322ea6fc310f33985e6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $330,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 80c | 96,608$77,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,321.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 20c | 87,208$17,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,441.6 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 20c | 7,295$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.32 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 4,793$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.56 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 4,372$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.07 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 79c | 1,522$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,062$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…d2a3backed Under | 28c | 757.57$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…085bbacked Over | 72c | 757.57$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 18c | 511.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 506.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 80c | 389.69$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 357.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 21c | 284.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 255.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 249.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 20c | 245.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 21c | 239.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 22c | 172.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 20c | 113.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 80c | 109.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 79c | 88.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 21c | 66.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 20c | 50.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)SC Braga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.