Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9588f64416800df53f2fa80b3f5c2beabfcedaf83aa7e17e2505705dbecf238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $647,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $647,095 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 63c | 107,273$67,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,691.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 37c | 89,206$33,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,006.18 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 22,700$6,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,977.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 80c | 7,499$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 6,875$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.86 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 66c | 3,647$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.13 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 3,289$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.38 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Under | 43c | 3,212$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 67c | 2,898$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 67c | 2,286$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 1,756$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.72 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 38c | 1,632$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.14 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Under | 20c | 1,395$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 34c | 1,100$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 23c | 943.54$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 33c | 926$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.36 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 41c | 729.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 725.4$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.96 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 34c | 702$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.94 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 69c | 700$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 64c | 665.23$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 25c | 595$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 54c | 569.87$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 78c | 513$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 34c | 439.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.13 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 64c | 403.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 31c | 402.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Under | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 65c | 390.12$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Under | 54c | 371.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 349.1$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.11 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 344.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 7c | 287.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 264.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 70c | 264.08$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 63c | 246.03$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Under | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 78c | 194.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…4cc1backed Over | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 64c | 120.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 35c | 114.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 93.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 12c | 91.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Under | 38c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 74c | 81.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…b921backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…1507backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 39c | 59.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Under | 17c | 59.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 58.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 26c | 56.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 34c | 50.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…250dbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 46.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Under | 37c | 44.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…7df7backed Over | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 66c | 33.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…9f76backed Over | 58c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…126cbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)SC Braga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.