Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc325a89188f149a73e6e6f54656c1aeba689f3b5b8d6ac5827afc96ab1514b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 847.54$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 623.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 234.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 42c | 222.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 214.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 192.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 174.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 12c | 150.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 137.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 57c | 134.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 21c | 133.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 132.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 129.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 21c | 123.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 17c | 119.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 118.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 117.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 78c | 112.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 71c | 107.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 104.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 101.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 79c | 96.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 24c | 96.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 95.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 93.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 22c | 92.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 78c | 90.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 88.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 83.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 78.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 57.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…4325backed Yes | 21c | 55.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 80c | 50.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…ad23backed Yes | 32c | 49.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 49.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 46.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 45.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 38c | 44.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 43.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 74c | 40.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 39.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 75c | 38.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 77c | 37.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148d…f106backed No | 54c | 35.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 58c | 32.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…7a5abacked No | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 70c | 31.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 30.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 74c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 74c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 26.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 75c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 58c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 67c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 79c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 75c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…a01fbacked No | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 68c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C or below on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.