Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43109aaa29f74094e9d573206c9bc0f83bd5109a9e79d5045bd91669bbb34ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 610.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 419.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 50c | 340.87$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 327.21$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 39c | 264.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 247.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…12efbacked Yes | 80c | 239.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 236.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 52c | 230.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 17c | 229.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.55 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 71c | 219.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 216.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 215.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 44c | 200.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 199.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 29c | 199.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 168.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 49c | 157.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 68c | 156.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 67c | 147.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 121.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 70c | 121.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 20c | 118.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 104.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 98.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 92.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 52c | 91.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 83.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 78.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 73.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 55c | 67.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 24c | 63.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 76c | 53.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 64c | 51.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 50.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 40c | 49.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 60c | 47.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…4325backed No | 33c | 37.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb577…3f0ebacked Yes | 64c | 36.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ded…732dbacked No | 52c | 35.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 34.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…ee88backed Yes | 68c | 32.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…13a2backed Yes | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 77c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 69c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 75c | 26.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 69c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 24.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 76c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…9a4ebacked Yes | 64c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 78c | 20.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 76c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C or below on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.