Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32e5520b3a6a1598a6b3238f883f3e46fcf8a59861256450de6fbb3e0b9d068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,176$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.88 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 474.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 438.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 27c | 425.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.24 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 30c | 296.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 76c | 293.84$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 252.93$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…2531backed Yes | 43c | 246.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 43c | 232.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 205.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 23c | 200.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 190.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 22c | 154.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 49c | 129.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 127.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 123.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 10c | 118.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 112.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 110.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 101.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 22c | 95.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 23c | 86.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 86.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 30c | 84.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 83.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 54c | 82.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 79.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 57c | 79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 49c | 62.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 61.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 53.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 50.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 45.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 28c | 40.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 42c | 35.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 42c | 30.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 74c | 28.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 73c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…935bbacked Yes | 44c | 25.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 73c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 51c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 67c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ec…5f25backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 70c | 14.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 14.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.