Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33f135536732a423b7dc480e229d71b8981939a6670e2375fd1919a0a30f7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,014$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 14c | 373.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 77c | 335.19$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 328$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 271$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 176.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 135.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 121.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 111.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 51c | 111.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 108.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 102.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 49c | 87.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 85.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 72.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4828backed Yes | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 49c | 61.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 78c | 60.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 49c | 60.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 52c | 57.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…6532backed Yes | 49c | 55.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 53.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 52.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 44c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 40.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 40.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 56c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 37.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 34.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 33.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 44c | 24.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 64c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.