Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc35b06789c6508fca8cceea4c332fbbc2dabf4b88240a46258437fba7556d288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 24c | 748.72$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 733.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 2c | 716$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 619.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 8c | 609.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 6c | 518.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 10c | 490.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 483.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 469.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 413.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 364.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 14c | 350.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 346$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 9c | 334.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 322.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 320$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 14c | 298.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…2e8abacked Yes | 6c | 293.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 287.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 11c | 275.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 274.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 7c | 267.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 260.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 5c | 233.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 12c | 215.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…e90abacked Yes | 9c | 206.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 15c | 198.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 171.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 167.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 9c | 162.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 158.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…02febacked Yes | 9c | 156.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 149.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 12c | 141.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 16c | 138.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 123.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 123.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 116.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 114.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 96.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 64.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 80c | 57.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 19c | 54.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.