TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over53c14,827$7,858 inWon+$6,968.6748054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c11,017$5,192 inLost-$5,192.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under43c5,651$2,430 inLost-$2,430.012,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over57c5,601$3,193 inWon+$2,408.518853.4%47 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c3,847$1,885 inLost-$1,885.224,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon+$9602,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under45c909.26$407 inLost-$407.263,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c751.22$351 inLost-$351.224,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c505.44$227 inLost-$227.454,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c270$122 inLost-$121.545646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.4421164.5%136 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c135$61 inLost-$60.7556547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over51c99.93$51 inWon+$48.9765649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Over57c50$29 inWon+$21.59653.1%51 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1c…4eaabacked Under45c48.91$22 inLost-$22.011735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under44c47.65$21 inLost-$20.9750841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under49c36.39$18 inLost-$17.691,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over52c30$16 inWon+$14.41,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Over53c23.55$12 inWon+$11.073268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Over52c20$10 inWon+$9.612841.4%53 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.