NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x585ff4bce534c36e3b12e02c60a3e2121a7bda8a901516ae78b887b21c26fcea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 5,767$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.31 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 55c | 3,490$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.66 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 2,812$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.37 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 2,656$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 44c | 2,007$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,622$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 1,304$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.94 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 1,261$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.42 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,252$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 49c | 655.01$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.72 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 579$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.92 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 539.82$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 512.31$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 478.49$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.25 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 475.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 35c | 353.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 256.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 221.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 64c | 163.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 18c | 161.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 48c | 140.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 114.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 106.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 98.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 36c | 70.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 33c | 44.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 52c | 39.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Under | 26c | 39.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Under | 43c | 38.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 54c | 30.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1397…c72abacked Over | 60c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 65c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-2.5)Bucks won
- Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Cam Thomas: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BucksBucks won
- Heat vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bucks won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.