TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Heat, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks47c30,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,899.9948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Heat52c20,991$10,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,887.3438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Heat53c19,574$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,400.3829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat53c18,245$9,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,669.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks47c11,126$5,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,896.781,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaccb…61dcbacked Heat53c10,889$5,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,771.183171%22 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3290…1135backed Bucks48c10,314$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,363.421861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks47c8,577$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,585.694,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks55c5,595$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.863,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Bucks48c5,352$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.0830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ba…b93dbacked Bucks46c5,288$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat54c5,279$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.4489050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd7…559fbacked Heat54c5,213$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe6…43afbacked Bucks46c5,213$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb147…e1efbacked Heat54c4,909$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat54c4,781$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.1250653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d7…414ebacked Bucks46c4,141$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…5686backed Heat54c4,112$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…069ebacked Heat54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1601546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat46c3,968$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.764,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9b…9e80backed Heat54c3,866$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef8…0024backed Bucks46c3,455$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Bucks47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.481,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5426…bc07backed Bucks46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Bucks48c2,888$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.5224744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Bucks47c2,205$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.538765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat53c1,992$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.23,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Bucks47c1,909$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.8223256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat42c1,793$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.915,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat52c1,602$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.842,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Heat53c1,600$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8481,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Bucks48c1,588$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.181,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bucks47c1,536$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.081,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks50c1,458$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7291,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks47c1,342$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.746,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Bucks60c1,204$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.521,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bucks50c1,001$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Bucks48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3df…beefbacked Bucks46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Bucks46c999.97$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9917250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat53c836.8$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.64,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…c15fbacked Bucks46c733.12$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.881675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks46c667.97$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.144,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Bucks46c663$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.2226839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Bucks54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.093863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Bucks47c568.09$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0947651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bucks46c442.61$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.012,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bucks48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Heat46c330$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.83246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bucks47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15952242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…4153backed Bucks55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Bucks46c291$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Bucks48c275.72$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3740546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Bucks48c244.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2187453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ce…ea8dbacked Heat53c215.94$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.022850%14 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Bucks50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10051451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks47c192.91$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.123,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6c…a67dbacked Heat52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006235.5%22 W · 40 L-10.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-29.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Bucks47c179.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.331,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Heat54c153$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6231354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks51c150.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.943,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8149351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Bucks48c149.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9943544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bucks48c146.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3776250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks47c135.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.642,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Heat53c128$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Heat55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Heat52c124$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.071,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Bucks47c122.87$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1271449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca7…b4adbacked Heat55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Bucks79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3661957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Heat54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Heat54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5431947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Heat54c99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.971,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat50c98.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.363,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Heat54c93.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.221948.9%107 W · 112 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Bucks51c84.07$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8191846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Heat54c83.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Bucks48c81.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.041,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Bucks48c79.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5324147.7%115 W · 126 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks47c77.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.123,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Bucks48c76.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7213045.4%59 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Bucks61c71.02$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b5…8b54backed Bucks48c70.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.453040%12 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Heat50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3537549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28be…03fcbacked Bucks48c68.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.752360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Bucks47c68.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0915949.7%79 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Heat32c67.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.241,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Heat47c64.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032450%162 W · 162 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks57c62.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.283,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Bucks48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.253945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Bucks48c59.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0862844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks47c54.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.588,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks50c53.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Bucks55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56969.6%48 W · 21 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+27.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Heat31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9765542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…3a2abacked Heat52c48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Heat31c46.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.281,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.