TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Galaxyof San Jose Earthquakes, Los Angeles Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x800a…0b4dbacked San Jose Earthquakes21c6,560$1,388 inLost-$1,388.172138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Los Angeles Galaxy78c1,864$1,454 inWon+$410.1648344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed San Jose Earthquakes13c1,600$208 inLost-$207.995437%20 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed San Jose Earthquakes16c1,172$188 inLost-$187.561,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Jose Earthquakes15c920.18$137 inLost-$136.971,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Galaxy79c681.83$539 inWon+$143.1899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x545b…7e82backed San Jose Earthquakes17c254.36$42 inLost-$421136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed San Jose Earthquakes13c230.77$30 inLost-$302147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad57…2fc0backed San Jose Earthquakes24c199.71$48 inLost-$47.931520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bf…f43dbacked San Jose Earthquakes12c125$15 inLost-$15825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked San Jose Earthquakes16c102.19$16 inLost-$16.352334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked San Jose Earthquakes17c91.99$16 inLost-$15.6452923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.