Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb11bb4155558bbedb31fd5e8b183dfd911ed47436c5677a1c9c3b322caba9d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Earthquakesof Los Angeles Galaxy, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 28c | 7,528$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.02 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed San Jose Earthquakes | 73c | 4,800$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 16c | 2,647$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.68 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed San Jose Earthquakes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 7c | 1,458$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 6c | 1,210$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…919abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 67c | 789.98$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed San Jose Earthquakes | 70c | 599.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 33c | 296.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 28c | 222.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 74c | 128$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 76c | 103.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed San Jose Earthquakes | 68c | 78.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 30c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked San Jose Earthquakes | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.