World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc383b1d76331f606520f4e5bb6db25f60180e564f64cb557e41d086755edf2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,387$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 874.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 873.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 597.01$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 7c | 584.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 549.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 527.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 474.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 10c | 392.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 7c | 377.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 328$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 298.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 13c | 278.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 231.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 23c | 193.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 188.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 19c | 171.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 165.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 80c | 125.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 124.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 20c | 118.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 117.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 110.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 96.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 17c | 86.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 85.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 83.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 63.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 18c | 63.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 60.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 17c | 58.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 21c | 58.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 39.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 47°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.