World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f5a95613ba9acffa478cebfcb8c85d3e435da3e706d750dc5e9bcf08c63cf28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 0c | 10,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 10c | 1,827$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 5c | 1,553$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 58c | 911.32$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.12 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 888.14$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 736.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 688.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 27c | 670.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 533.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 20c | 472.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 45c | 412.43$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 59c | 404.74$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 60c | 335.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 328$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 7c | 319.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 274.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 272.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 13c | 258.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 252.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 13c | 248.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 73c | 243.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 217$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 38c | 194$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 56c | 189.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 7c | 180.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 63c | 180.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 177.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 133.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 73c | 126.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 20c | 117.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 78c | 107$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 104.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 58c | 100.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 97.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 49c | 95.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed Yes | 45c | 89.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 13c | 84.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 19c | 83.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…6e4fbacked Yes | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 19c | 73.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 72.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 48c | 68.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 61c | 67.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 54.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 63c | 51.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 33c | 49.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9d…6703backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 42c | 44.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…82a4backed Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 43.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…c186backed Yes | 60c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 55c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 75c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 59c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…cf39backed Yes | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…c944backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 56c | 26.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 56c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…e02abacked No | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 59c | 25.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 65c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes | 62c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 72c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed Yes | 60c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…4c65backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 80c | 19.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2118…27a3backed Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 80c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed Yes | 61c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 76c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 47°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.