Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bfb9435cb095a6c61d783ab54c6451ddf85e6b3678c4610bb1eab2f94aae02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,892$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 0c | 14,416$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 0c | 2,796$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,681$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 1,130$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.15 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 337.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 267.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 48c | 144.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 20c | 76.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 64.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 59.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 54.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 48.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 41c | 39.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 53c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…db54backed Yes | 54c | 22.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 54c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.