Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c0842067c622788ed6c520c2cb1538d31b4c99deeed6c9ebe4f96068fcc9ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 1,570$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 574.56$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 70c | 436.49$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 19c | 414.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.36 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…ca1abacked Yes | 35c | 284.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 275$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 45c | 259.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked No | 10c | 234.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 27c | 174.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 167.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 10c | 166.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 153.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 78c | 136.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 10c | 133.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 118.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 17c | 107.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…714bbacked No | 12c | 100.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 86.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 61c | 66.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 21c | 58.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 57.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 49.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 47.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 42.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 29.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 26.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 14.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.