Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738a747f539e242b07cc0eee26a4e5a8e383d807e1280d137f8e2d340c60a5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 810$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 51c | 589.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 5c | 384.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 64c | 349.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 163.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 159.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 38c | 154.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 142$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 112.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 111.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 107.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 63c | 101.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 57c | 95.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed Yes | 12c | 92.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed No | 45c | 89.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 38c | 81.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 76.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 59c | 74.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 72.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 70.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 53.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 34c | 50.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 48.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 49c | 47.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 47.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 59c | 46.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 66c | 46.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 59c | 41.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 38.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 37.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 31.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 45c | 28.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 44c | 22.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…aaf7backed Yes | 67c | 20.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 66c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.