TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Braunschweig: Niels McDonald vs Keegan Smith

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Niels McDonaldof Niels McDonald, Keegan Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Keegan Smith23c2,264$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.9911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Niels McDonald73c2,044$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.384,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith26c1,737$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.968,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Niels McDonald76c1,633$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.448,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Niels McDonald66c1,605$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.784,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Keegan Smith18c1,075$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19031436.9%116 W · 198 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…9256backed Keegan Smith8c1,013$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4925448.4%123 W · 131 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Keegan Smith46c1,006$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.755648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Keegan Smith29c1,000$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.029,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Niels McDonald54c900$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41425453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keegan Smith22c817.28$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.238,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Niels McDonald76c785.91$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9158045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Keegan Smith44c679.66$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.263,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…e8e1backed Keegan Smith15c660.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Niels McDonald72c652.05$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8547956.6%271 W · 208 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Niels McDonald57c620$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.924,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Keegan Smith43c600$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.27,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Keegan Smith28c452.72$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0235032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Keegan Smith14c372.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2192145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Keegan Smith43c362.51$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.871,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf353…692abacked Niels McDonald55c362.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.368148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Niels McDonald19c361.1$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.1358857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Niels McDonald58c323.18$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0652152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Keegan Smith44c300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.332,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf188…4a83backed Keegan Smith30c276.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7612423.4%29 W · 95 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Niels McDonald76c257$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.731,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Niels McDonald54c254.84$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.014,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Keegan Smith45c245.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Keegan Smith42c237.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.635,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Keegan Smith44c229.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Niels McDonald52c224.05$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.81,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Niels McDonald70c213.05$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6573648.1%354 W · 382 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Niels McDonald55c208.28$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4510859.3%64 W · 44 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Niels McDonald57c204.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.127,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Keegan Smith50c200.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027949.1%137 W · 142 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Niels McDonald79c190.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.811,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Niels McDonald50c189.45$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7367144.7%300 W · 371 L+30.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Niels McDonald76c185.74$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.981,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Niels McDonald51c162.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4216755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Niels McDonald55c146.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7991754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Keegan Smith29c139.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4042930.5%131 W · 298 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…f8d9backed Keegan Smith40c124$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4810233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Niels McDonald79c114.6$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Keegan Smith19c107.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027528.4%78 W · 197 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Keegan Smith42c100.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Keegan Smith48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.91,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Niels McDonald56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9911653.4%62 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285f…0f08backed Keegan Smith29c99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4718537.3%69 W · 116 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfa…79a0backed Niels McDonald55c90.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.174153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Keegan Smith23c85.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.151,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Keegan Smith19c85.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.218038.3%69 W · 111 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Niels McDonald57c85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.553,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Keegan Smith18c81.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Keegan Smith45c80.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.541,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79da…f465backed Keegan Smith38c73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.881526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Keegan Smith26c61.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1644949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Niels McDonald58c57.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.022,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Niels McDonald72c55.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3458359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Keegan Smith22c54.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2133557%191 W · 144 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Keegan Smith46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Keegan Smith44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2239851%203 W · 195 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Keegan Smith45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6557449.1%282 W · 292 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Keegan Smith28c48.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7762549.6%310 W · 315 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Keegan Smith44c45.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…4525backed Keegan Smith29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.186429.7%19 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Keegan Smith42c35.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557845.7%264 W · 314 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Niels McDonald70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4297852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…4b52backed Niels McDonald55c31.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0816588.5%146 W · 19 L+37.7wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+33%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Niels McDonald54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.87146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…84f7backed Keegan Smith45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3835349.9%176 W · 177 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Keegan Smith42c29.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Keegan Smith45c29.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.282,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Niels McDonald78c28.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.161,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Keegan Smith43c27.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7932546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Keegan Smith43c26.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4311353.1%60 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac06…f93dbacked Keegan Smith44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114652.2%24 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Niels McDonald59c23.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8619656.6%111 W · 85 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e69…30a0backed Niels McDonald54c23.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.833043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Niels McDonald56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8719064.7%123 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed5…3320backed Niels McDonald74c18.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.753953.8%21 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.