Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f92fd3c70c92620aa303a5f408b489927ee096a5cff89017d10ca24bea87a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 72c | 417.07$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 247.92$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 160.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 152$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 150.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 113.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 102.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 72c | 83.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 31c | 83.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 74.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 74.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 67.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 64.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 63.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 57.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…2038backed Yes | 35c | 57.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 54.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 52.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 52.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 47.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 39.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 30.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 75c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 67c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 65c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed No | 72c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.