NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4377f5ed14dad4945e3d31d59d62a155e9c076b223e8c4e66b93989235c1d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 750.79$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Kings | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Kings | 38c | 234.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Kings | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Kings | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Kings | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Kings | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Kings | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Kings | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Kings | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Trail Blazers | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Kings | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-0.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.