NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f00d5cca319b7a2478af5b9a8c0e45feaf7c0790f73a7dd8ca82ede7fd7275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Kings, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 227.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Kings | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 204$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 119$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x505b…447cbacked Kings | 51c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 59.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Kings | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Kings | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Kings | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Kings | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Kings | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Kings | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Kings | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Kings | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Kings | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Kings | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Kings | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Kings | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Kings | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Kings | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Kings | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Kings | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Kings | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Kings | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Kings | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-0.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. KingsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.