TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$313,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$386,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit40c31,269$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,669.341,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Spirit38c10,657$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,639.5796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit34c10,315$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,814.72,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Spirit41c10,000$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,924.4410751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid60c10,000$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,049.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team Liquid61c9,257$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.7622644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid63c8,050$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,060.1641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Liquid65c8,027$5,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2181,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit38c7,641$2,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.2935062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Liquid62c7,100$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,380.0620159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid60c6,848$4,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,116.1840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid62c6,494$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Spirit29c5,935$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,242.3441242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid63c5,339$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.7371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Spirit39c5,094$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.3347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit73c4,797$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.5234468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Liquid76c4,532$3,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,434.4722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid60c4,445$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.8296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit39c4,006$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.892,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Liquid55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9910646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid63c3,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Liquid56c3,497$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.4629042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit37c3,105$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.3895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid66c2,976$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.351,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Spirit34c2,734$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.221,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid65c2,637$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.581,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Spirit49c2,581$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.7816954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Team Liquid65c2,550$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.4129352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Team Spirit32c2,531$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.0824636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit29c2,492$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.771,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid68c2,483$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.6289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Liquid58c2,469$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.824251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit67c2,409$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.6760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Spirit39c2,313$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.8213442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Team Spirit46c2,291$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.4430356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit37c2,223$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.421,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Liquid61c2,206$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.258048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid78c2,139$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.6956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed Team Spirit37c2,011$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.811855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2801,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.9949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid17c1,839$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.841,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid60c1,815$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.2941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid65c1,617$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.0145750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit40c1,563$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Spirit45c1,525$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.8438049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid59c1,524$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit40c1,512$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.896354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Liquid57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85531248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Spirit49c1,491$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.9120767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid58c1,424$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.971,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit40c1,272$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.2588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid56c1,270$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.8960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit42c1,250$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.8841055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Liquid80c1,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid61c1,250$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.5960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit28c1,197$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.281,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Team Spirit57c1,180$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.8617373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Liquid50c1,170$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58537945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Liquid65c1,099$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71755147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid60c1,076$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.331,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Spirit37c1,063$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.7926550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit46c1,027$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.9743344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Spirit39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.8616541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Team Liquid29c991$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7512136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked Team Liquid62c923.29$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.2515957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit38c820.41$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.0972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid64c787.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Liquid3c769.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.958622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid61c769.26$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.222,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Team Spirit34c756.19$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.163844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Liquid62c750$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Team Spirit40c738.61$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6121144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Spirit43c704.41$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5620145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Team Spirit43c629.17$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.923545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Team Spirit40c625$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3756544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Spirit49c600.29$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1545061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid60c596.47$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5974549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Liquid55c569.98$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit35c569.56$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.8639660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Spirit11c558$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.6240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf062…0257backed Team Liquid38c525.03$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.045131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Team Spirit26c523.08$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.0820452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Team Liquid24c504.76$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1431953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Spirit31c500$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.742053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed Team Spirit39c480$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.725461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Liquid65c464.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Spirit33c461.11$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.9553139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Spirit37c456.35$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5637223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Liquid48c450.01$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.551,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Spirit27c448.52$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4230534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Team Liquid62c422.22$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1224947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid58c417.96$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.271,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Team Liquid63c412.27$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.618469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Liquid7c408.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.766132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Team Liquid70c406.31$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4213157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Liquid74c405.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.