TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Spirit, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$430,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Spirit44c77,387$34,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,217.1416147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Liquid56c23,740$13,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,445.617452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid60c13,051$7,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,155.0596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Spirit11c12,669$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40047650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Liquid64c10,012$6,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,636.0743344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid56c9,107$5,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,965.8869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Spirit35c8,901$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.1722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Spirit52c7,984$4,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,117.3210751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid56c7,175$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.3239343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit42c7,124$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Liquid63c6,902$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.148954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit47c6,777$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1571,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid60c6,661$4,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.781,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid57c6,579$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.31,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid60c6,246$3,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.911,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid65c5,818$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.5268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit45c5,750$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,592.5180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid61c5,454$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.6289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid55c5,405$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.8745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit31c5,242$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.552,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid50c5,139$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.891,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Liquid61c4,833$2,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.2235062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid55c4,281$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.9541056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Spirit32c4,231$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.2596645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid56c4,132$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.411,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Liquid56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.9929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Spirit42c3,639$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.098048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Spirit42c3,053$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.3126550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Team Liquid55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3505154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid74c2,368$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.1579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x883d…3627backed Team Liquid59c2,212$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid58c2,091$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.0789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit39c1,723$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.311,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid70c1,685$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.3553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Liquid67c1,659$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.4822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b79…a5a8backed Team Spirit9c1,601$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011346%52 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Team Liquid72c1,511$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42112256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ee6…fe26backed Team Spirit1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Team Spirit45c1,495$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.833938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid67c1,459$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.161,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Team Spirit29c1,447$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4247830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit39c1,410$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid68c1,379$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.071,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid51c1,330$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.1244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Spirit47c1,255$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.6416954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit41c1,250$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.541055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid55c1,250$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Spirit46c1,196$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit42c1,191$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit38c1,184$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.241,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit42c1,184$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c97…c97abacked Team Spirit2c1,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid68c1,097$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.822,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid61c1,085$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.881,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5304…13e8backed Team Spirit4c1,064$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Liquid60c999.99$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.535758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit42c972.39$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Spirit43c940$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.216541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid60c884.77$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8156548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid54c839.98$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.9931547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit49c814.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Spirit30c805.78$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0465647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Spirit49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39237655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid59c800$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8160552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit45c773.02$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6248539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Liquid56c754.25$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2526843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Team Spirit34c749.98$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.493844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed Team Spirit31c731.59$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7617454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit31c709.94$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.452,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked Team Spirit35c684.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit46c677.99$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit37c648.64$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.811,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30674549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid77c594.38$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7346664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Team Spirit47c574.91$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.212733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Liquid55c564.25$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9117443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid56c530.05$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…d567backed Team Liquid56c524.73$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8810450%52 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Liquid67c515.06$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9736343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf062…0257backed Team Spirit21c511.49$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Team Spirit35c510.17$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5626956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Spirit37c500.03$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.731,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Team Liquid60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2008469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15539660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Spirit52c499.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Spirit51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb5…55f6backed Team Liquid58c485.53$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.921040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit28c477.05$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9272035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Team Spirit23c450$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team Liquid68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1834051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed Team Spirit52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2085461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Team Liquid62c380.78$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4431953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team Spirit50c360$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18037549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Team Liquid57c349.49$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7324947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Liquid43c348.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3482…fa0ebacked Team Liquid59c340$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.45468.5%37 W · 17 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Team Spirit10c337.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3525547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…38d5backed Team Liquid68c336.76$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.