MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ada5fb63f8d6ac0970690f7c6898f1a7bc9b5192b70c01d945f20e3feed0e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 30,540$12,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,208.69 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 60c | 19,996$11,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,997.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 10,000$5,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,941.22 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 55c | 6,912$3,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 50c | 6,866$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,418.38 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 59c | 4,777$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics | 59c | 3,014$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.07 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 1,631$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,123$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 54c | 812.01$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.78 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics | 59c | 717.96$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.01 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 542.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 60c | 441.59$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics | 60c | 420$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 59c | 399$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 256.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.77 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 255.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 65c | 227.55$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 207.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.91 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 169.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Athletics | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 159.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 60c | 105$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 63c | 100.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Athletics | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Athletics | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 71.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Athletics | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 56c | 48.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Athletics | 56c | 37.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Athletics | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Athletics | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 29.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Athletics | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 50c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Athletics | 62c | 24.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Athletics | 67c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.