TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Athletics, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$406,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$382,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked San Francisco Giants58c75,597$43,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,062.291,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics47c75,000$35,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,249.9577053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants69c31,878$21,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,033.562,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics28c24,742$6,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,970.374,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Athletics44c21,500$9,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,46019950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed San Francisco Giants53c21,000$11,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8708943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed San Francisco Giants53c20,853$11,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,800.9192054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked San Francisco Giants55c19,048$10,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,571.4850153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked San Francisco Giants53c17,667$9,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,303.594548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics45c17,282$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7771,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics42c15,358$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,450.383,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c99…809cbacked Athletics15c15,192$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Athletics40c14,444$5,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,822.0647953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Athletics43c12,500$5,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,37536246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Athletics43c12,500$5,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3755743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Athletics42c11,905$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00029147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed San Francisco Giants63c11,182$7,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.5743554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked San Francisco Giants55c10,375$5,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,703.991,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Athletics25c7,986$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.061747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d6…ea7bbacked Athletics24c6,182$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010913.8%15 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed San Francisco Giants58c4,722$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.491,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Athletics45c4,412$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.172,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics24c4,218$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.0510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants62c3,560$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.521,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics44c3,418$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.62,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e86…cb8fbacked San Francisco Giants56c3,371$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.347451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed San Francisco Giants73c3,208$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8792,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed San Francisco Giants75c3,051$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.8120748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked San Francisco Giants53c2,973$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.311,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics22c2,847$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics36c2,686$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.714,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Athletics30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…54adbacked San Francisco Giants70c2,143$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.861163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants65c2,121$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.764,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked San Francisco Giants54c2,064$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.5523758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics19c1,862$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Athletics44c1,357$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.0448147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ff7…2e67backed Athletics47c1,205$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5643240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed San Francisco Giants53c1,111$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.1786653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed San Francisco Giants66c1,086$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.271750.1%359 W · 358 L-1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics44c1,073$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.756,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Athletics47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics31c1,048$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.574,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2cb8backed Athletics45c1,007$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.979652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Athletics40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40039739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked San Francisco Giants58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42014050.7%71 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…d4acbacked San Francisco Giants56c992.46$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.688446.4%39 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Athletics29c970$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.49448.9%46 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed Athletics44c944.57$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.613050%15 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked San Francisco Giants53c944.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8436048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics42c887.88$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.878,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics45c865.37$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.39,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked San Francisco Giants55c848$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.644945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd82…9f66backed Athletics36c843.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015937.7%60 W · 99 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef3a…1eb3backed Athletics25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Athletics26c798$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7440043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked San Francisco Giants55c791$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.9569453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6451…b57abacked Athletics44c668.68$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6714841.2%61 W · 87 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed San Francisco Giants56c663.43$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.9189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics44c595.95$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.273,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked San Francisco Giants52c569.25$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2424346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed San Francisco Giants80c563.36$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.673836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.9wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-42.5%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51fdbacked San Francisco Giants56c559.37$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.372133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Athletics28c554$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8879442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics46c546.09$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c10…5d44backed San Francisco Giants53c528.75$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.518733.3%29 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed San Francisco Giants53c516$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5261450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics29c510.43$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5395045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked San Francisco Giants65c509.47$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4425950.2%130 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Athletics26c500.25$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0436932.8%121 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed San Francisco Giants56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Athletics29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14536729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked San Francisco Giants61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19551849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed San Francisco Giants61c443.06$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.639535.8%34 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Athletics44c424$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5644643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics47c420$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.41,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics39c408$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.128,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed San Francisco Giants77c400$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.680159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked San Francisco Giants67c390.48$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8690446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Athletics19c390.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.842,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb89…c7ebbacked San Francisco Giants80c389.43$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.893881.6%31 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Athletics44c382.95$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.568846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed San Francisco Giants59c370.4$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4439151.9%203 W · 188 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ff…e13ebacked Athletics25c368$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4812428.2%35 W · 89 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Athletics44c360$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48a4…8c2ebacked Athletics34c351.47$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.58043.8%35 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed San Francisco Giants58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a70…4865backed Athletics47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507358.9%43 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants54c307.67$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8185949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed San Francisco Giants56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13258652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed Athletics30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Athletics29c267.24$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.785,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbe…ea98backed San Francisco Giants64c265.97$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.758968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Athletics45c265.91$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.771,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics21c261.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.528,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf887…db68backed San Francisco Giants57c259.65$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Athletics39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028045.7%128 W · 152 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.