TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,662 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro58c24,112$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,111.7954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed paiN Gaming42c13,622$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.3416147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed paiN Gaming46c13,000$5,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,934.6233746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Virtus.pro66c5,713$3,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.4786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Virtus.pro66c4,744$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.9634468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed paiN Gaming42c3,440$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.85236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Virtus.pro50c3,072$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.4551751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cd…4dd1backed paiN Gaming59c2,785$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.022556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Virtus.pro51c2,581$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.2366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming41c2,429$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.2818746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Virtus.pro64c1,600$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.235758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked paiN Gaming62c1,581$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.9838049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Virtus.pro75c1,403$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3345061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1528…e141backed paiN Gaming21c1,365$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.331915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming42c1,350$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56781029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming36c1,245$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.911,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Virtus.pro48c1,019$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.7338653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked paiN Gaming47c977.77$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.2918362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro57c948.72$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.9558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro39c940.6$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.31,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed paiN Gaming36c922.6$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Virtus.pro66c771$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.48040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed paiN Gaming45c760$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.731245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming36c748.98$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.181,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Virtus.pro57c600$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Virtus.pro67c596.96$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9633845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c27…eea9backed Virtus.pro57c574.45$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.353464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming45c550.44$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2475339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro54c546.12$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.111,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked paiN Gaming8c525.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.941244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Virtus.pro57c515.57$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked paiN Gaming49c515.38$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2824137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked paiN Gaming43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21517133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed paiN Gaming45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22533541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed paiN Gaming41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro59c481$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro54c459.17$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.492,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed paiN Gaming21c448.72$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2313027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Virtus.pro57c437.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.192638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming44c391$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed paiN Gaming53c379.73$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0819664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Virtus.pro67c350$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro38c339.16$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.672,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Virtus.pro59c320.64$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.014452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked paiN Gaming50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Virtus.pro50c300$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1517225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Virtus.pro56c281.17$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7850053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Virtus.pro61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.98844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked paiN Gaming43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed paiN Gaming39c226.44$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed paiN Gaming45c223.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked paiN Gaming36c221.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked paiN Gaming45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Virtus.pro73c179.03$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0457654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Virtus.pro59c167.83$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8172154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed paiN Gaming43c163.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro59c142.43$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.751,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro57c139.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.286451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed paiN Gaming75c134.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked paiN Gaming43c130$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.920043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming36c118.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.451,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5dab…f602backed paiN Gaming46c117.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.273228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed paiN Gaming43c117.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Virtus.pro61c116.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8318764.7%121 W · 66 L+17.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4414…9474backed Virtus.pro38c111.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.176950.7%35 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb68…c695backed Virtus.pro60c101$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.43951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked paiN Gaming24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Virtus.pro50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed paiN Gaming44c93.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.224314%6 W · 37 L-9.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed paiN Gaming13c90.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.797448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Virtus.pro59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…b54abacked Virtus.pro56c84.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.252944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming39c84.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.991,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming45c83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3518739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe791…cbc0backed paiN Gaming29c68.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked Virtus.pro44c68.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.464065%26 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked paiN Gaming46c68.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.349644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed paiN Gaming30c68.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked paiN Gaming49c64.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.254247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Virtus.pro53c61.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2915147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe3…b958backed paiN Gaming46c56.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Virtus.pro47c56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7322456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Virtus.pro51c49.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed paiN Gaming54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255226.9%14 W · 38 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Virtus.pro66c43.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8925147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked paiN Gaming61c42.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.549838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec7…8c25backed Virtus.pro53c40.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x440a…8181backed Virtus.pro52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9aee…8c24backed Virtus.pro63c39.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3818256%102 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50eb…579bbacked paiN Gaming57c36.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Virtus.pro54c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.643852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed paiN Gaming65c33.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5820349.8%101 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Virtus.pro63c30.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4115033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Virtus.pro66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.346150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed paiN Gaming43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.913636%49 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Virtus.pro56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7954648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13aa…88d6backed Virtus.pro57c26.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2118769%129 W · 58 L+20.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2131…1e8bbacked Virtus.pro50c24.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf185…2ab4backed paiN Gaming60c21.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.