Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc512aa8b5179d5862ebc5a46dbe48eb04c7ecd4f2458e25bbfa960f88ef05acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 490.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 368.23$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 34c | 362.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 306.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 216.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 161.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 158.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 144.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 110.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 100.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 96.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 25c | 95.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 92.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 48c | 82.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 78.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 64.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 37c | 62.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 58.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 58.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 77c | 58.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 66c | 53.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 47.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 46.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 54c | 44.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 43.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 43.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 41.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 40.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 56c | 40.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 43c | 31.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 29.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 23.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cf…1a67backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.