Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca6056a2ea451b9d262e889e5197d8588b8bf2bf786f9a61fa65df990b24a0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 826.41$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 40c | 671.55$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 23c | 632$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 549.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 520.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 520.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 405.24$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 400.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 24c | 382.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 16c | 350.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 225.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 61c | 160.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 154.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 148.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 131.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 121.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 107$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 68c | 102.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 40c | 100.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 96.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 81.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 73.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 70.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 67.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 58.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 57.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 53.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 51.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 51.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 48.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 43c | 48.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 41.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 75c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 61c | 35.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 57c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 25.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 70c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 59c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.