Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54aa5b2eb5541e42708aa24b86db49f81c32cae7eaaaba0321651c94024e396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 29c | 640.62$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.79 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 28c | 606.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 386.02$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 330.87$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 309$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 236.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 195.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 193.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 193.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 22c | 180.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 160.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 152.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 134.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 121.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 21c | 96.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 95.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 28c | 79.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 34c | 76.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 74.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 70.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 69.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 37c | 68.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 60.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 60.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 22c | 52.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 47.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 24c | 44.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 43.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 40.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 39.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 38.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 75c | 35.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 77c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 30.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 68c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 25.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 25.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.