Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c969d96fee041d1643dcc09ea203c48bc5ca109e371adbb4aa042b8819ec12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 5c | 534.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 508.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.02 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed No | 5c | 485$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 354$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.08 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 301.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 219$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 217$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 210.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 182.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 13c | 171.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 78c | 167.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 14c | 167.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 13c | 166.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 154.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 138.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 135$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 115.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 113.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 113.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 14c | 110$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 102.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 92.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 90.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 80.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 14c | 79.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 67.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 57c | 61.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 56.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 55.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 46.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 45.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 42.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…2db3backed No | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 50c | 33.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 64c | 33.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…e41cbacked No | 57c | 27.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 57c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 17.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 16.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 69c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 14.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 75c | 14.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.