Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea56fec18edcbce6eb6abf2c254b5a275a0707da41dfbb391d15318bc305222f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 28c | 1,644$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,036$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 576.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 486.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 78c | 418.09$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 392.84$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 376.11$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 362.72$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 253.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 239.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 211.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 194.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 191.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 184.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 179.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 176.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 35c | 172.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 135$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 130.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 68c | 123.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 122.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 42c | 118.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 105.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 101.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 28c | 101.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 57c | 98.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 84.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 38c | 75.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 26c | 72.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 26c | 68.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 71c | 63.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 25c | 60.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 59.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 25c | 57.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 57.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 25c | 54.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 36c | 52.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 52.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 50.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 49.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 29c | 49.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 48.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 74c | 46.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 45.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 37c | 42.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 28c | 41.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…f608backed No | 74c | 36.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 36.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 56c | 35.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 59c | 33.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 33.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 32.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 30.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 34c | 30.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 77c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.